The Maoist party led government's plan to discharge the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Rukmangad Katawal based on the "Army Act, 2063" drew overwhelming reactions against such move from many quarters- domestic and foreign alike; but this has happened. Why the Maoist party did face such an overwhelming reactions and where did they go wrong in their assessment? This cannot be viewed simply by limiting the issue between Nepal army (NA) and Maoist led government. The reasons for the over amplified issue lies on the clash of interests of various stakeholders which need to be analyzed for the greater interest of the nation and need to be acted accordingly.
International interest
1. India's Interest: Maoist movement in India has become the thrown in the flesh of the Indian internal security. In this regard the proliferation of Maoist movement and Maoist ideologically driven strong government in Nepal does not suit the Indian interest. India's interest is to pacify the Maoist movement in Nepal so as to contain the possible greater proliferation in the region. The greater aim is to weaken the Maoist movement in India. Another aim is to transfer the Maoist Party to a democratic left front of Nepal. That was the reason why India played a decisive role for striking the 12 points agreement and signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). India's support for Maoist party will stand good as long as the Maoist party agrees to transfer themselves to a more democratic left front and serve the India's interest in multidimensional issues including some of the contentious issue affecting Nepal's international relations.Another reason is the long established traditional and good relation between the Indian army and Nepalese army. The two armies enjoy the best of the relations; and there is a tradition of reciprocity to honor each other army chief as the Honorary COAS of other army. Besides the Gurkhas of Indian army and personal relations among many officers also play an important role in areas of each other's interest.A major security interest of India is not let to have a heavy northern influence in various spheres of Nepalese affairs. India's greater security interest covers the Himalayan range as the northern edge of their security umbrella. Thus any government who is likely to allow the more freedom of Northern neighbor's activity in Nepal and more so closer to the Indian boarder is taken not as the welcoming move by India.
2. American Interest: Ideologically United States of America does not accept in principle any kind of communist rule in any country of the world, and Nepal is no exception. The strategic importance of Nepal because of its geo-political position between two big and ideologically diverse countries does not need to be amplified more. USA has a standard of establishing large, medium and small sized embassy (super large sized embassy in Iraq - an exception) according to their political and security interest in the country. The establishment of medium sized embassy in Nepal simply justifies the magnitude of American Interest in Nepal.
3. China's Interest: The Chinese interest lies in the protection of Tibetan Security issue. They seem to have identified the Maoist party cadres as a potent security body to stop the free Tibetan movement from the south. Thus the Maoist affiliated militant and sister organization could be a reliable safeguard as the work force in development projects bordering Tibet and Nepal. This serves the interest of both China and Maoist party of Nepal.
4. European Countries' Interest: EU nations do not have major security interest in Nepal but do have major concern toward the ongoing peace process. They want to protect their established image and role as the main peace broker and negotiator in Nepal as well. Besides their paramount concern lies with the human rights issues and development work in Nepal.
Domestic Interests
5. Political Party's Interest: The major political parties have realized that the Maoist party's strategic move was to contain them through achieving control over the Nepal Army. The overwhelming reaction by the political parties against the Maoist led Government's action to remove the Gen Katwal should not be understood as the mere support to Gen Katwal rather this need to be perceived as the support shown to the NA with an aim to protect their party interest. They seem to have realized that their existence will be threatened if the NA as the formidable hurdle for Maoist party comes under Maoist influence. The political parties seem to have realized the importance of an apolitical and professional national army for the protection of greater interest of the nation and the party.
6. Maoist Interest: The Maoist party's immediate interest is to establish control over the NA by removing the COAS before completing his 3 years term and to appoint a new COAS of their choice or someone who will support their aspiration. Their greater interest is to achieve an official recognition of the Maoist combatants as a national security force with established ranks structure; and integrate majority of the combatants in NA so as to gain control over it. This way they can aspire to achieve their grand strategy to establish People's Republic.
7. Nepal Army's Interest: Nepal army as the most important element of national power has their own concern to protect their interest and existence. NA being the main stakeholder of integration issue and peace process wants to preserve their organization intact as an apolitical institution. They want to preserve their tradition, established practice and remain as professional army under the democratic norms of the nation.
Hence, the reaction of excessive dimension against the Maoist move to remove the COAS has come not because of the support to General Katwal but because of the support to the NA driven by paramount interests of political parties and other stake holders. Individual Interests and vindictive attitude of Maoist party is no less important. General Katwal is just a pretext and not a cause of conflict rather it is a clash of interest of several stake holders. As the political interference did take place and the COAS General Katwal is discharged and Lt Gen Khadka is appointed as acting COAS by the cabinet decision (rather Maoist party's decision) but the game is not yet over. General Katwal will have difficulty to justify his refusal to accept the Government's decision and the role of the president and Supreme Commander of the Nepal Army becomes crucial at this critical juncture of national crisis. If the president could not find an amicable way out to pacify this issue, General Katwal most likely will knock the door of Supreme Court for justice. A "Stay Order" if at all is issued in favor of Gen Katwal the existence, rationality and morale ground of Maoist party and its top leader will be compromised. In that case Maoist party's next action most likely will be nationwide disturbances and even to the worst the combatants of cantonments may defy the CPA and leave the camp with weapons. If so happens it will be sad state of affairs which will compromise the national interest, party's interest, national army's interest and international interest for the sake of single party interest and individual ambition.
Published in 'The Kathmandu Post' on 05 May, 2009
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